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Program of the 2017 Annual Meeting at Bank of Canada, July 20-21, Ottawa, Canada

Program of the 2017 Annual Meeting of the

Central Bank Research Association

Hosted by the Bank of Canada

     July 20-21, 2017, Ottawa, Canada

Access the program as PDF here

The annual meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) brings together policy-relevant research on topics of interest to central banks and international financial institutions. CEBRA’s 2017 Annual Meeting is organized jointly with the Bank of Canada (BoC) and takes place on July 20-21 2017 at the BoC’s conference center in Ottawa.

The 2017 meeting features six sessions jointly organized by CEBRA and BoC. Further, the meeting features special sessions organized by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank (WB), as well as an invited session organized by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Scientific committee:

 Chair: Rhys Mendes (BoC)

Members: Enrique Alberola (BIS), Marcus Brunnermeier (Princeton & NBER), Stephen Cecchetti (Brandeis & NBER), Giovanni Dell’Ariccia (IMF), Jean-Sébastien Fontaine (BoC), Galina Hale (FRBSF), Leonardo Gambacorta (BIS), Scott Hendry (BoC), Raju Huidrom (WB), Emanuel Kohlscheen (BIS), Ayhan Kose (WB), Oleksiy Kryvtsov (BoC), Sylvain Leduc (BoC), John Rogers (FRB), Georg Strasser (ECB), and Jing Yang (BoC).

Program Overview

 

Thursday, 20th July 2017
8.30-9.00 Registration and Welcome Remarks
 

9.00-11.00: Parallel sessions I

Session 1 – Unconventional monetary policy Session 2 – Financial globalization and monetary policy
 

11.00-13.00: Parallel sessions II

Session 4 – Micro price dynamics and inflation Session 3 – Fintech and payments
 

13.00-15.00: Lunch & Break

 

15.00-17.00 Session 7 (Plenary Session)

Low interest rates, bank business models and changes in financial intermediation

(BIS Special Session)

Policy Panel (TBD)
Conference Dinner

 

Friday, 21st July 2017
 

8.30-10.30: Parallel sessions III

Session 5 – Commodities and macroeconomics Session 9 – Monetary policy and financial stability (IMF special session)
 

10.30-12.30: Parallel sessions IV

Session 6 – Oil prices, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy Session 8 – Cyclical spillovers (World Bank special session)
 

13.00-14.30 Lunch & Break

 

14.30-15.30 Coffee & CEBRA presentation and annual assembly

 

15.30-17.30 Session 10 (Plenary Session)

Recent advances in international macro-finance

(NBER special session)

 

17.30 Social Activity

 

 

Detailed List of Sessions

 

# Topic Organizing Institution Committee Members
1. Unconventional monetary policy

 

CEBRA & Bank of Canada

 

Jean-Sébastien Fontaine (BoC) and Jing Yang (BoC)
  Miles Kimball, Ruchir Agarwal “Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound” Discussant: TBC
  Yi Zhang  

“Shadow Rates, Forward Guidance, and Unconventional Monetary Policy”

Discussant: Jens Christensen (FRB San Francisco)
  Luca Dedola, Georgios Georgiadis, Johannes Grab, Arnaud Mehl “Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates” Discussant: Christopher Neely (FRB St-Louis)
2. Financial globalization and Monetary Policy CEBRA’s IFM Program & Bank of Canada Galina Hale (FRBSF & Director of CEBRA’s IFM Program)
  Georgios Georgiadis, Martina Jancokova  

“Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks”

 

Discussant: Abrogio Cesa-Bianchi (Bank of England) awaiting final confirmation
  Inhwan So  

“Bank Globalization and Monetary Policy Transmission in Small Open Economies”

Discussant: Anthony Landry (Bank of Canada)
  Jin Cao,  Valeriya Dinger  

“Financial Globalization and Bank Lending: The Limits of Domestic Monetary Policy?”

 

Discussant: Georgia Bush (Bank of Mexico)
awaiting final confirmation
3. Fintech and payments CEBRA & Bank of Canada Scott Hendry (BoC)
  Mohammad Davoodalhosseini  

“Central Bank Digital Currency and Monetary Policy”

 

  Jack Meaning, Emily Clayton, Ben Dyson “Broadening Narrow Money: Monetary Policy with a Central Bank Digital Currency”
  Jesse Maniff, Richard Sullivan, Sabrina Minhas

 

 

“Exchange on the Ripple Network: Evaluating Ripple’s EUR/USD Rates”

4. Micro price dynamics and inflation CEBRA & Bank of Canada Oleksiy Kryvtsov (BoC), John Rogers (FRB), and Georg Strasser (ECB)
  Henning Weber, Klaus Adam “The Optimal Inflation Rate with Heterogenous Firms”

 

Discussant: Raphael Schoenle  (Brandeis)
  Raphael Auer, Ariel Burstein, Sarah M. Lein “Price and Quantity responses to large exchange rate shocks: evidence from the great Swiss appreciation”  

Discussant: Georg Strasser (ECB)

 

  Natalie Chen, Wanyu Chung, Dennis Novy “Vehicle Currency Pricing, Trade, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through” Discussant: Ben Tomlin  (Bank of Canada)
5. Financial and macro dimensions of commodity cycles CEBRA & Bank of Canada Enrique Alberola (BIS), Emanuel Kohlscheen (BIS)
  Enrique Alberola, Gianluca Benigno  

“Revisiting the Commodity Curse: a Financial Perspective”

 

Discussant: Franz Hamman (Banco de la Republica, Colombia)

  Steven Poelhekke, Thorsten Beck “Follow the money – Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls?”  

Discussant: Fernando Duarte (NY Fed)

  Rhys Bidder, Adam Shapiro “Drilling into Bank Balance Sheets: Examining Portfolio Responses to an Oil Shock”  

Discussant: Victoria Nuguer (IADB)

  Junior Maih, Hilde Bjornland, Vegard Larsen “Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability” Discussant: Marco Lombardi (BIS)
6. Oil Prices, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy CEBRA & Bank of Canada Oleksiy Kryvtsov (BoC) and Sylvain Leduc (BoC)
  Kirstin Hubrich, Fédéric Holm-Hadulla “Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: A regime-switching framework for the euro area” Discussant: Soojin Jo (Dallas Fed)
  Robert Vigfusson, Deepa Datta, Benjamin K. Johannsen, Hannah Kwon “Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound”

 

Discussant: Reinhard Ellwanger (Bank of Canada)
  Kevin Moran, Sylvain Leduc, Robert Vigfusson “Learning in the Oil Future Markets – Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications” Discussant: Ron Alquist (Kings Peak Asset Management)
  Marco Lombardi “Monetary policy spillovers, global commodity prices and cooperation” Discussant: Drago Bergholt (Norges Bank)

 

7 Low interest rates, bank business models and changes in financial intermediation Bank for International Settlements Leonardo Gambacorta (BIS)
Bernd Schwaab, Andre Lucas, Julia Schaumburg Bank business models at zero interest rates

 

Discussant: Michal Kowalik (Federal Reserve Boston)
Viktors Stebunovs, Seung Jung Lee, Gregory J. Cohen Limits to Monetary Policy Transmission at the Zero Lower Bound and Beyond: The Role of Nonbanks Discussant: Lev Ratnovski (IMF)
   

Christoph Basten (FINMA and ETH Zurich), Mike Mariathasan KU Leuven


Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking When Interest Rates are Negative
Discussant: Raymond Chaudron (De Nederlandsche Bank)
8 Monetary Policy and Financial Stability International Monetary Fund Sole Martinez Peria (IMF)
  Victoria Nuguer, Julio A. Carrillo, Enrique G. Mendoza, Jessica Roldan-Pena  

“Tight Money – Tight Credit: Coordination Failure in the Conduct of Monetary and Financial Policies”

 

Discussant: Sole Martinez Peria
  Fernando Duarte, Tobias Adrian  

“Financial Vulnerability and Monetary Policy”

Discussant: Victoria Nuguer
  Gee Hee Hong  

“Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bank Credit Supply”

 

Discussant: Fernando Duarte
9 Cyclical spillovers World Bank Raju Huidrom (WB) and Ayhan Kose (WB)
 

Raju Huidrom, Thomas Helbling, M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok

 

 

“How do Business Cycles Become Global? Common Shocks or Spillovers?”

 

 

Discussant: Serdar Kabaca (BoC)

Alessandro Rebucci, Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchiy, Andrea Ferreroz,

 

 

“International Credit Supply Shocks”

 

 

Discussant: Gurnain Pasricha (BoC)

Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin “The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes” Discussant: Gee Hee Hong (IMF)
10 Recent advances in international macro-finance National Bureau of Economic Research Marcus Brunnermeier (Princeton & NBER) and Stephen Cecchetti (Brandeis & NBER)
  Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan* Yusuf Soner Baskaya, Julian di Giovanni, and Mehmet Fatih Ulu  

“International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles”

 

 

Discussant: Anusha Chari (University of North Carolina)8

Hanno Lustig, Roberg J. Richmond  

“Gravity in FX R2: Understanding the Factor Structure in Exchange Rates”

 

Discussant:  Bob Hodrick (Columbia University)

 

Oleg Itskhoki and Dmitry Mukhin  

“Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium”

 

Discussant: Eric van Wincoop (University of Virginia)

 

 

 

 

 

Call: Fragmentation of International Trade and Finance and Risks from Rising Protectionism. Annual meeting of the International Finance and Macroeconomics Program @ Bank of England, London, October 19-20, 2017

The first annual meeting of CEBRA’s International Finance and Macroeconomics program is sponsored by the Bank of England. The submitting author must be a member of CEBRA. To join CEBRA free of charge, please visit: www.cebra.org/join/
The deadline for submissions is May 15, 2017.

Call_IFM1

Program: CEBRA’s Sessions at the WEAI 2017 meetings in San Diego

On June 25-29, 2017 CEBRA is organizing five sessions at the 2017 annual meeting of the Western Economic Association International in San Diego. The program is outlined below and the time schedule of the sessions will be posted on the web page of WEAI later this year.

Access the call here.

Bold indicates the scheduled presenter.

SESSION 1: The Future of Unconventional Monetary Policies
ORGANIZER: PAU RABANAL, IMF

  1. Margarita Rubio (University of Nottingham), “Macroprudential Policies in a Low Interest-Rate Environment”
  2. Annukka Ristiniemi (Riksbank), “Quantitative easing and the price-liquidity trade-off”
  3. Mario Crucini (Vanderbilt), Did Unconventional Fiscal Policy under the ARRA Help Those Most In Need? A County-Level Analysis
  4. Pau Rabanal (IMF), “Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?”

SESSION 2: Applied Macroeconomics and Time Series Econometrics
ORGANIZER: TATSUMA WADA, Keio University

  1. Andreas Fischer (Swiss National Bank), “Portfolio rebalancing in times of stress”
  2. Ine Van Robays (ECB), “Time-variation in US monetary policy spillovers: Good versus bad times”
  3. Martin Berka (University of Auckland), “Structural determinants of real exchange rates in the OECD”
  4. Tatsuma Wada (Keio Univeristy), TBA

SESSION 3: The effects and transmission of monetary policy
ORGANIZERS: JULIEN CHAMPAGNE and SAMI ALPANDA

  1. Johannes Wieland (UCSD), “Financial Dampening”
  2. Kevin Lansing (FRB-SF), “Endogenous Regime Shifts in a New Keynesian Model With a Time-Varying Natural Rate of Interest”
  3. Julien Champagne (Bank of Canada), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy in a Small-Open Economy : Narrative Evidence from Canada”
  4. Sami Alpanda (UCF), “Household Debt Overhand and the Transmission of Monetary Policy”

SESSION 4: Asset markets Linkages: Risks and Spillovers
ORGANIZER: YU-CHIN CHEN, University of Washington

  1. Alexandra Tabova (FRB Board), “Searching for Yield Abroad: Risk-Taking through Foreign Investment in U.S. Bonds”
  2. Dorislav Dobrev (FRB Board), “High-Frequency Cross-Market Trading: Model Free Measurement and Applications”
  3. Anthony Landry (Bank of Canada), “Capital-Goods imports and US Growth”
  4. Yu-chin Chen (Washington), “Exchange rates and yield curves in the era of unconventional monetary policies”

SESSION 5: Central bank policy and household decisions
ORGANIZER:  XIN ZHANG, Riksbank

  1. Chomsisengphet Souphala (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency), “Monetary Policy Shock, Cash Demand and Consumption: Evidence from Turkey”
  2. Matilda Kilström (Riksbank), “Household Debt and Monetary Policy: Revealing the Cash-Flow Channel”
  3. Edison Yu (Philadelphia Fed), “Uncertainty and Consumer Credit Decisions”
  4. Xin Zhang (Riksbank), “Monetary Normalizations and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Fed Liftoff and Online Lending”

Call for applications: Research Unit Visiting Scholars Programme at the Bank of Finland, Monetary Policy and Research Department, Fall/Winter 2017

The Bank of Finland’s Research Unit (RU) invites applications for the Visiting Scholars Programme in the areas of macroeconomics, monetary policy, financial stability and financial markets. More information are available under https://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/research/visiting-scholars-programme/.
The application deadline is April 30, 2017.

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Call: Understanding inflation: lessons from the past, lessons for the future?

Frankfurt am Main, 21-22 September 2017

Many countries have seen low inflation in recent years, and both structural and cyclical factors seem to have contributed to this. The aim of the conference is to enhance our understanding of the drivers and dynamics of inflation and of inflation expectations, to draw conclusions from the most recent low inflation environment as well as from earlier episodes, and to discuss lessons for the future. The conference is intended to provide a forum for discussing innovative research and to facilitate exchanges of views between researchers and policymakers.

Submission Deadline: 31 May 2017

For further information, please visit the website.

Call: Joint European Central Bank and Magyar Nemzeti Bank research workshop on “Macroprudential instruments: effectiveness and interactions”

10 July 2017, Budapest

In the recent years, policymakers have made significant progress in applying macroprudential instruments, particularly in the banking sector. This invites us to evaluate the effectiveness of macroprudential policies and how the different tools designed to mitigate systemic risks interact with each other. Strong interlinkages between European economies and cross-border banking groups mean that particular care must be taken in the implementation of macroprudential measures. In this complex institutional and legal set-up one of the key challenges is to develop a holistic assessment of the macroprudential stance. This requires both an understanding of whether an instrument is appropriate with respect to a particular systemic risk and an understanding of how the macroprudential instruments applied interact with each other. With the objective of enhancing its assessment of macroprudential policies, the Macroprudential Policy Group (MPPG) of the European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Committee (FSC) is organising its second research workshop entitled “Macroprudential policies: effectiveness and interactions”, to be held in Budapest on 10 July 2017 and hosted by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank.

The workshop aims to facilitate a dialogue between policymakers and researchers in order to better assess the adequacy of macroprudential policies. The workshop will review empirical results, as well as state-of-the-art models and tools currently being developed in academia and policy institutions for the assessment of macroprudential policies. The review is intended to shed further light on possible complementarities, interactions and spillover effects created by the application of macroprudential measures.

Submission deadline: 18:00 CET on 19 May 2017

For further information about the research workshop, please visit the webiste.

Course on Firm Level Analysis at the Tinbergen Institute

Amsterdam, July 3-7, 2017

The Tinbergen Institute (a member of the CompNet network) will hold a 4-days course on the theory and practice of the analysis of firm level data for the study of productivity, trade and growth. The course, taught by Bartelsman, De Loecker and Van Biesebroeck, will blend together theory, application to data and practical, hands-on, econometric analysis.

For further information about the course, please visit the website.

Registration is open. Institutions members of CompNet will be entitled to send two staff free of charge.