Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations

(Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Program)

Inflation expectations play a crucial role in households’ and firms’ decisions. Yet, they can be very difficult to measure. In Hajdini, Knotek, Pedemonte, Rich, Leer, and Schoenle (2022), we propose a new, indirect way of measuring consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next 12 months by focusing on a different approach to asking the survey question. We provide regular updates to this Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations (ICIE) measure on this page.

 

Here is the evolution of our Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations (ICIE) over the next 12 months, from February 2021 through the present:

Note: The figure shows a weekly trimmed mean and the 95% confidence interval based on 1000 bootstrapped samples.

Data Background:

Via Morning Consult’s proprietary survey infrastructure, our question is fielded among a representative sample of about 20,000 US adults every week since February 2021, as well as 1,000 respondents per country in 15 countries every month since July 2021. For more details, see Hajdini, Knotek, Pedemonte, Rich, Leer, and Schoenle (2022) “Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary Number 2022-03 .

 

Disclaimer: The Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations (ICIE) measure is not an official product of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The views expressed herein are those of the above authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Federal Reserve System.

NEWS

  • Data updated 5/9/2022
  • Latest year-ahead ICIE: 6.72%.
  • Next update: 5/17/2022
  • Stay tuned for more!